Macroeconomic Indicators Affecting the Stock Price Index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand

Abstract

This research aims to examine the key macroeconomic indicators that affect changes in the stock price index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. This study is quantitative research using secondary data from public financial databases. The variables include independent variables consisting of policy interest rate, the exchange rate of Thai baht to US dollar, crude oil prices, gross domestic product, consumer price index, and business confidence index. The dependent variable is the stock price index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, while the control variable is Dow Jones Industrial Average. Data were collected on a quarterly basis from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2025, totaling 80 quarters. The data were analyzed using multiple regression to examine the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The study found that crude oil prices, business confidence index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have a positive effect on changes in stock price index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, while policy interest rate, the exchange rate of Thai baht to US dollar, gross domestic product, and consumer price index have no significant effecting to stock price index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The independent and control variables jointly explain dependent variable with R² of 85.65%. The results indicate that stock price index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand tends to increase when crude oil prices, business confidence index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rise. This study provides empirical evidence on this relationship in the context of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and offers recommendations for investors regarding investment decisions, as well as for government agencies in maintaining economic stability.