Thailand Economic Policy After Election 2023

Abstract

Forecasting the economic policy of the Thai state after the 2023 election involves analyzing data from international and domestic economic and political situations. Factors that affect post-election economic policy can be divided into two parts: external factors and internal factors. External factors include high inflation, confidence in the financial institution system, and the growth of the Chinese economy, which still needs monitoring. These factors influence Thailand's monetary policy, potentially leading to an increase in interest rates to manage inflation and the implementation of a strict monetary policy to address volatility that may arise from financial institution problems. Moreover, it aims to maintain the exchange rate without appreciating to an extent that affects exports. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other countries has resulted in a global economic situation marked by low growth. Although the conflict's advantages may limit inflation, post-election fiscal policy needs to focus on economic stimulus to address the economic slowdown. Internal factors consist of political party campaign policies and Thailand's economic situation, both of which shape post-election economic policies. The government's revenue-generating policy remains unclear, and campaign policies could lead to higher government spending. While some policies may generate government expenditures without increasing production efficiency, there is an emphasis on promoting small and medium enterprises, bio-economy, circular economy, and the green economy as the government's priorities. Resource management policies continue to allocate public resources, especially land, to the people. Efforts are being made to address the public debt problem, although a specific policy to tackle it has not been outlined. When combined with the economic situation, fiscal factors such as exports and tourism suggest that post-election economic policy and post-election fiscal policy may result in a budget deficit. (เว้น 1 บรรทัดขนาดตัว